Taiwan Standoff Could Initiate End of American Era

Taiwanese foreign minister in panic about possible Chinese invasion. Threatens to fight until the end.

[thehill.com] – Biden spy chief: China would find change in US policy toward Taiwan ‘deeply destabilizing’

[globaltimes.cn] – China opposes US’ unprecedented meeting invitation to Taiwan rep in France, calling it endorsement for Taiwan secessionists
[globaltimes.cn] – China’s 2nd aircraft carrier group holds 1st drill in 2021 in S.China Sea, ‘training for combat preparedness’
[taipeitimes.com] – Kissinger warns of ‘colossal’ risks in US-China tensions
[taipeitimes.com] – US envoy in Paris meets with Taiwan counterpart
[bbc.com] – China warns Taiwan independence ‘means war’ as US pledges support
[businessinsider.com] – Fears of a Chinese attack on Taiwan are growing, and Taiwan isn’t sure who would help if it happened
[usnews.com] – China Slams U.S.-Taiwan Meeting as Biden Flexes New Diplomatic Muscle Against Beijing
[defensenews.com] – Eliminate ambiguity over Taiwan, or risk unravelling regional credibility
[reuters.com] – Strategic clarity on Taiwan policy carries ‘significant downsides’ – U.S.
[foreignpolicy.com] – Australia Draws A Line on China
[nytimes.com] – Biden’s Taiwan Policy Is Truly, Deeply Reckless

Latest Economist cover, illustrating the severity of the situation

[economist.com] – The most dangerous place on Earth

What Avril Haines (TheHill link above) and Kissinger are suggesting is that both China and America could be suckered into war because of the behavior of Taiwan. Taiwan declaring independence could be a last, desperate effort by the Taiwanese government, to instrumentalize the US army for its own survival and push China and the US into war.

The situation in 2021 regarding East-Asia and Taiwan has remarkable geopolitical similarities with Europe 1939, if you map:

1939 2021 Role
Poland Taiwan Useful idiot to get the war started
America China Winner
Europeans Anglos Loser
Europe Taiwan / Australia / New Zealand Colonized territories after the war

Britain and France were set up for war by the US in 1939, by pressuring them in signing the war guarantee for Poland, meaning an unconditional pledge that Britain and France would declare war on Germany, if Germany would invade Poland. That encouraged Poland to begin ethnic cleansing of Germans from Versailles Poland, forcing Germany’s hand after 100,000 Germans had fled from Versailles-Poland into Germany proper, forcing the hand of Britain and France, with the Americans the grinning thirds, who got what they wanted, namely war in Europe and the destruction of the European empires and Europe as a nice-to-have-colony, until today and the Eastern half for their Soviet buddies and get the long-planned American Century started.

[wikipedia.org] – Anglo-Polish military alliance
[amazon.de] – America’s grab for world power
[amazon.com] – Churchill, Hitler, and “The Unnecessary War”
[Forrestal Diaries]

Now it is the US who could be set up for a war it will lose. The big question for the US is: what to do with Taiwan? US interest is keeping the status quo. Chinese interest is breaking the status quo and annex Taiwan, which nobody disputes is ethnically/culturally Chinese, except perhaps for some forgotten Dutch halfwits, who still have fond memories of Dutch Formosa:

[wikipedia.org] – Dutch Formosa

Seriously, America is now in a REAL dilemma: what would the US do if China finally does invade Taiwan?

Before that happens, the US needs to make up its mind about attempting to deter China from making that move in the first place. In achieving that, the US has two options:

“explicit war guarantee” in the hope that deters the Chinese, like Britain and France did towards Germany, putting the fate of said countries into the hands of Poland (in hindsight a stupid idea).
“strategic ambiguity”, leave the Chinese guessing about what the US will do, not in the least because the US has no clue either.

The trouble with the first is that it could encourage Taiwan to declare independence, triggering a Chinese invasion and the US response (or not). It would make the US army an extension of Taiwanese foreign policy, just like Britain and France became an extension of Polish foreign policy and involuntary enabler of Polish territorial objectives.

De facto, the US IS in a state of strategic ambiguity, it merely helps Taiwan with armaments, but it has NO military bases in Taiwan. The US doesn’t even diplomatically recognize Taiwan; in 1979 the US derecognized Taiwan to do communist China a favor. But in those days, the Chinese economy was 20-30 times smaller than it is today. Today, the US is caught between a rock and a hard place.

Our guess is that if push comes to shove, the US will NOT engage in an all out war against China, if China decides to invade. Expect no US bombing raids against Chinese cities, launched from Japan or South-Korea. Both countries would not allow that to happen in the first place.

On the other hand, doing nothing would be a total loss of face for the US as a “Great Power”. It is very well possible that the US will react, far way from mainland China, with blockades to hurt Chinese economic interests, like halting oil supplies to China from the Middle East.

But that would be half-baked measures only, triggering Eurasian counter measures, like Russia stepping up oil and gas deliveries to China. Or Europe, seeing US power waning, acting more independently of the US, making overtures towards Russia.

The bottom line is that US power is on the way out. It will still be a great power, but no longer a hegemon. And if that becomes clear for all to see, expect repercussions for America internally. What if the US loses its century-old “calling” of conquering the entire world, ending in failure? White America will wake up in a country that is no longer theirs. The old “don’t rock the boat” attitude, could very well morph into some serious boat rocking, if white America realizes it is on the verge of becoming a minority in their former own lands and that secession is the only way out, the same logic that happened to the USSR, that fell apart in 15 pieces, once the Soviet adventure was over.

[foxbusiness.com] – Global microchip shortage has China eyeing Taiwan – Some worry China may use military force to seize Taiwan and its microchip industry

Regarding Taiwan, there is a very important issue that is underexposed: TSMC, the world’s largest microchips producer with 50% of the world market. For many reasons, the global industry is currently facing a severe microchip shortage. If China invades, and the Taiwanese government doesn’t exercise a scourged earth policy (with which they can threaten now, but unlikely will follow up on such a threat), China all of a sudden gets this industry in its hands and acquire a mighty leverage over US industry/supply chains. Think Apple, think the MIC, think the entire US industry.

[wccftech.com] – TSMC Surpasses Intel To Become World’s Most Valuable Chipmaker

TSMC could be the prime motive for China to finally make its move. It is not about acquiring a few extra square miles or 24 million extra people, it is about acquiring technology and manufacturing capacity for chips, a blow against the US, reducing its sanctions options.

Brexit clown Farage musing doomily about the loss of the first of the Five Eyes, that de facto has been geopolitically absorbed by China. Expect Australia to follow that example soon. And the US, Canada and UK to fall apart. Exit Five Eyes.

Popular UK car show “Top Gear” host Jeremy Clarkson driving over majestic Chinese highways, realizing that his Britain can’t compete with that. At [1:38] Clarkson says: “I’m telling you, in Britain we’re doomed”. Not sure why that would be the case. Perhaps it would prompt the British to rethink their absurd anti-European Brexit prank, rooted in long-gone imperial glory and WW1/WW2-attitudes. Don’t hold your breath though, they will probably have to lose Scotland, Ulster, Wales, Gibraltar, Falklands and the City first, before reality will start to bite them. Quite a reassuring thought for continental Europeans. The eternal ticking British time bomb under Europe defused, once and for all.

[amazon.com] – Charles Kupchan, The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-first Century (2002)

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